Focus Area
Geopolitics & Diplomacy
An election, a diplomatic statement or a sovereignty claim can shift where a country stands between the major powers, and with it the conditions for doing business there. This section tracks political change, territorial and sovereignty disputes, multilateral diplomacy, and how smaller states choose sides or hedge between the powers.
8 analyses
After Vučić: What Serbia's Change of Government Means for China, Russia and the EU
On 25 October 2026 Serbia's Student List won a snap election and ended 14 years of Progressive Party rule. The movement grew out of protests over a station canopy, renovated by Chinese contractors, that collapsed and killed 16 people. The new majority promises to publish contracts, but it keeps the partnership with China, opposes sanctions on Russia and takes a harder line on Kosovo, an obstacle on the road to the EU.
From Fentanyl Tariffs to the Golden Triangle: How Drug Control Shapes Geopolitics
Washington tied tariffs on Chinese goods to its assessment of Beijing's counternarcotics cooperation, until the Supreme Court ruled in 2026 that the law they rested on did not authorise tariffs — yet Beijing's precursor export controls kept widening. Afghanistan's ban cut poppy cultivation by about 95% and farmers' income with it; methamphetamine seizures in East and Southeast Asia rose 48%. Each number captures one link in the chain, and none of them alone shows whether drug control works.
The Ceuta Crisis Escalates: Spain and Morocco Caught Between Border Cooperation and a Sovereignty Claim
Some 80,000 people crossed into Ceuta over two days in late July. A Supreme Court ruling that granted no one a right to stay was recast online as a pass to enter; six written warnings from border unions went unanswered; and once the crisis subsided, Morocco put the sovereignty of Ceuta and Melilla back on the table. Not even the death toll is agreed — and the EU's answer to a border arrangement that just failed was to enlarge it.
The Statement That Never Came: A Chinese Missile Test Exposes the Deeper Contest in Pacific Diplomacy
After a Chinese submarine test-launched a strategic missile into the Pacific, the Forum's foreign ministers could not agree on a statement. A failure to agree on wording repays more study than a strongly worded communiqué: the same consensus rule that let small states constrain nuclear powers in 1985, and blocked Beijing's regional security package in 2022, has now blocked the Forum's own statement. The institution has not changed — the structure of interests has.
From Austronesian Kinship to Territorial Claims: Chinese Scholars Push Batanes Islands into New Sovereignty Dispute
A recent seminar at Jinan University in China cited geography, Austronesian kinship, and colonial history to claim that the Batanes Islands belong to Taiwan and legally fall under Chinese claim. The dispute is still confined to academics and the Philippine government, but it shows how cultural and historical narratives are being drawn into the strategic contest over the Luzon Strait.
Missile Diplomacy in the South Pacific: Security and Economic Calculus Behind the Solomon Islands' Protest
Following China's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test in the South Pacific, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale issued a rare public protest. Coming from a government long seen as one of Beijing's closest Pacific partners, the criticism signals that island nations are increasingly putting regional security and sovereignty ahead of immediate economic incentives.
Global Backlash Against China's 'Ethnic Unity Law': The Most Disunited Regime Needs Unity Written into Law
China's new law packages domestic assimilation and external long-arm jurisdiction under the guise of 'unity,' sparking concern and countermeasures from democracies worldwide.
Behind Billions of Euros: The Institutional Struggle Between Hungary and the European Union
To unlock up to €10 billion in frozen EU recovery funds, Hungary tabled Bill T/174, overhauling its anti-corruption oversight and asset disclosure rules. The standoff shows how the EU is using its budget as leverage to enforce the rule of law.